Japan Votes: What’s at Stake in the 2025 House of Councillors Election

Joint Exit Poll – As of 4:00 PM (July 20, 2025) for each prefecture:

Kanagawa

  • CDP, Makiyama – 16.5%

  • LDP, Waki – 14.3%

  • Komeito, Sasaki – 14.0%

  • DPP, Kagoshi – 12.7%

  • Sanseito, Hatsushikano – 10.5%

  • Reiwa, Miyoshi – 6.7%

  • JCP, Asaka – 6.1%

Tokyo

  • Sanseito, Saya – 11.6%

  • JCP, Kira – 8.9%

  • LDP, Suzuki – 8.4%

  • DPP, Ushida – 7.6%

  • CDP, Okumura – 6.2%

  • DPP, Okumura – 5.6%

  • Komeito, Kawamura – 5.2%

  • CDP, Shiomura – 5.0%

  • LDP, Takemi – 4.4%

Yamanashi

  • DPP, Goto – 40.0%

  • LDP, Moriya – 35.8%

  • Sanseito, Nagata – 16.0%

Nagasaki

  • LDP, Koga – 42.3%

  • DPP, Fukabori – 29.8%

  • Sanseito, Kuroishi – 19.7%

Toyama

  • DPP, Niwata – 44.0%

  • LDP, Doko – 35.9%

  • Sanseito, Tabo – 13.4%

Hokkaido

  • LDP, Takahashi – 24.6%

  • CDP, Katsube – 19.7%

  • Sanseito, Tanaka – 14.8%

  • LDP, Iwamoto – 11.4%

  • DPP, Suzuki – 11.2%

Shiga

  • LDP, Miyamoto – 28.7%

  • DPP, Horie – 23.8%

  • Sanseito, Nakata – 21.8%

  • Ishin, Okaya – 14.5%

Hyogo

  • Independent, Izumi – 30.1%

  • LDP, Kada – 11.7%

  • Sanseito, Fujiwara – 11.1%

  • Ishin, Kippei – 9.6%

  • Komeito, Takahashi – 9.5%

  • DPP, Tada – 9.4%

Wakayama

  • Independent, Mochizuki – 29.0%

  • LDP, Nikai – 24.4%

  • Sanseito, Hayashimoto – 23.6%

  • Ishin, Urahira – 10.2%

Fukuoka

  • Sanseito, Nakata – 20.5%

  • LDP, Matsuyama – 15.9%

  • CDP, Noda – 14.0%

  • Komeito, Shimono – 10.5%

  • DPP, Kawamoto – 10.1%

Kumamoto

  • LDP, Baba – 38.8%

  • CDP, Kamata – 30.8%

  • Sanseito, Yamaguchi – 27.2%

Fukushima

  • LDP, Mori – 34.6%

  • CDP, Ishihara – 34.4%

  • Sanseito, Oyama – 25.9%

Gunma

  • Sanseito, Aoki – 37.6%

  • LDP, [Unnamed] – 31.1%

  • CDP, Kawamura – 18.8%

Chiba

  • DPP, Kobayashi – 17.6%

  • Sanseito, Nakatani – 16.9%

  • LDP, Ishii – 16.3%

  • CDP, Nagahama – 15.9%

Osaka

  • Ishin, Sasaki – 16.2%

  • Sanseito, Miyade – 12.3%

  • Ishin, Okazaki – 12.2%

  • Komeito, Sugi – 10.7%

  • LDP, Yanagimoto – 8.5%

  • DPP, Watanabe – 7.2%

Joint Exit Poll – As of 3:00 PM (July 20, 2025) for each prefecture:

Kanagawa

  • CDP, Makiyama – 16.9%

  • LDP, Waki – 14.4%

  • Komeito, Sasaki – 14.2%

  • DPP, Kagoshi – 12.4%

  • Sanseito, Hatsushikano – 10.5%

  • Reiwa, Miyoshi – 6.7%

  • JCP, Asaka – 6.3%

Tokyo

  • Sanseito, Saya – 11.7%

  • JCP, Kira – 9.0%

  • LDP, Suzuki – 8.3%

  • DPP, Ushida – 7.6%

  • CDP, Okumura – 6.2%

  • DPP, Okumura – 5.6%

  • Komeito, Kawamura – 5.3%

  • CDP, Shiomura – 5.2%

  • LDP, Takemi – 4.5%

Yamanashi

  • DPP, Goto – 39.0%

  • LDP, Moriya – 36.1%

  • Sanseito, Nagata – 16.0%

Nagasaki

  • LDP, Koga – 42.8%

  • DPP, Fukabori – 29.8%

  • Sanseito, Kuroishi – 19.3%

Toyama

  • DPP, Niwata – 43.6%

  • LDP, Doko – 35.9%

  • Sanseito, Tabo – 13.6%

Hokkaido

  • LDP, Takahashi – 24.7%

  • CDP, Katsube – 19.3%

  • Sanseito, Tanaka – 14.2%

  • LDP, Iwamoto – 11.7%

  • DPP, Suzuki – 11.4%

Shiga

  • LDP, Miyamoto – 29.2%

  • DPP, Horie – 24.1%

  • Sanseito, Nakata – 21.4%

  • Ishin, Okaya – 14.6%

Hyogo

  • Independent, Izumi – 30.4%

  • LDP, Kada – 11.4%

  • Sanseito, Fujiwara – 10.7%

  • Komeito, Takahashi – 9.6%

  • DPP, Tada – 9.5%

  • Ishin, Kippei – 9.4%

Wakayama

  • Independent, Mochizuki – 29.3%

  • LDP, Nikai – 23.9%

  • Sanseito, Hayashimoto – 23.6%

  • Ishin, Urahira – 10.4%

Fukuoka

  • Sanseito, Nakata – 20.5%

  • LDP, Matsuyama – 16.4%

  • CDP, Noda – 14.2%

  • Komeito, Shimono – 10.6%

  • DPP, Kawamoto – 9.7%

Kumamoto

  • LDP, Baba – 39.8%

  • CDP, Kamata – 30.6%

  • Sanseito, Yamaguchi – 26.4%

Fukushima

  • LDP, Mori – 35.0%

  • CDP, Ishihara – 34.4%

  • Sanseito, Oyama – 25.5%

Gunma

  • Sanseito, Aoki – 37.9%

  • LDP, [Unnamed Candidate] – 30.9%

  • CDP, Kawamura – 18.9%

 

As of 12:00 PM

 

Japan Votes: What’s at Stake in the 2025 House of Councillors Election

Today, voters across Japan are heading to the polls in one of the most consequential Upper House elections in recent memory. With economic concerns, constitutional revision, national security, and digital transformation at the forefront, the outcome of this election could reshape the political landscape heading into the second half of the decade.

At stake are the 124 seats in the House of Councillors, including the influential nationwide proportional representation block. The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is aiming to maintain its dominant position, while the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), the Democratic Party for the People (DPP), and emerging smaller parties seek to expand their influence or survive amid shifting voter sentiment.

Key issues shaping voter behavior include Japan’s evolving defense posture, cost-of-living concerns, energy policy, and distrust of entrenched political elites. This year’s race has also seen a notable surge in support for smaller, issue-focused parties like Sanseito, which have gained traction among younger and disaffected voters.

Below is the current final-stage outlook for the proportional representation race, which accounts for a significant share of party power in the House:

Japan 2025 House of Councillors Election – Final Stage Outlook

Nationwide Proportional Representation Block

Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) [11–14 seats projected]

Secured Candidates (◎):

  • Shoji Maitachi (Incumbent) – Special Quota

  • Mamoru Fukuyama (New) – Special Quota

  • Taro Yamada (Incumbent)

  • Shusaku Inudo (New)

  • Masahisa Sato (Incumbent)

  • Shigenori Misaka (New)

  • Hideki Higashino (New)

  • Muneo Suzuki (Former)

  • Haruko Arimura (Incumbent)

Likely (○):

  • Masamune Wada (Incumbent)

  • Hiroyuki Kishi (New)

  • Mio Sugita (New)

  • Masahiro Ishida (Incumbent)

At Risk / Battleground (△):

  • Seiko Hashimoto (Incumbent)

  • Akiko Honda (Incumbent)

  • Satoshi Kamayachi (New)

  • Daisaku Miyakubo (New)

  • Nariaki Akaike (Incumbent)

  • Akiko Santo (Incumbent)

  • Masao Miyazaki (Incumbent)

  • Hiroshi Nakata (Incumbent)

  • Natsumi Higa (Incumbent)

  • Masashi Tanaka (Incumbent)

Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP) [7–9 seats projected]

Secured Candidates (◎):

  • Renho (Former)

  • Makiko Kishi (Incumbent)

  • Shunichi Mizuoka (Incumbent)

  • Masahito Ozawa (Incumbent)

  • Saori Yoshikawa (Incumbent)

Likely (○):

  • Takashi Moriya (Incumbent)

  • Rei Koriyama (New)

  • Yuko Mori (Former)

At Risk / Battleground (△):

  • Hakubun Shiratori (Former)

  • Ryuhei Kawada (Incumbent)

  • Taiga Ishikawa (Incumbent)


Democratic Party for the People (DPP) [5–7 seats projected]

Secured Candidates (◎):

  • Tetsushi Isozaki (Incumbent)

  • Asami Tamura (Incumbent)

  • Yoshifumi Hamano (Incumbent)

Likely (○):

  • Kota Hirato (New)

  • Yasushi Adachi (New)

  • Yoshihiko Yamada (New)

At Risk / Battleground (△):

  • Genki Sudo (Former)

  • Toyoshi Aramaki (New)

  • Michiyo Yakushiji (Former)

Stay tuned for more updates as exit poll data continues to come in and Japan’s political future takes shape.

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